Define Consequences

Explanation

This activity is used to establish the probable consequences or effects of a known set of problems. On defining a set of consequences, probability and impact estimates are made which then calculate risk severity and potential risk exposure. Entries can be made for Cost, Time or both. Additional consequences can be registered against categories which are less standard than the usual Cost and Time, for example, Environmental or Reputation Risk.

Probability estimates can be made using a rating selection such as High, Medium, Low which is converted into a percentage for the system calculations. Where there is more accurate data available, you can alternatively choose to enter a percentage value - the system then selects the relevant rating selection from the base data.

Similarly, the cost impact can be entered using a simple rating selection or else a numerical value in the risk currency can be entered.

Prerequisites

A parent problem record should exist.

System Effects

• When both probability and impact have been entered, the system is able to assess the potential risk exposure.
• A risk severity rating, if defined, helps to prioritize the risks for action.
• The Calculated Cost Estimate is calculated to be the Most Likely Cost Estimate in the case of the Single Point analysis method and the weighted average of the cost estimates in the case of the 3-Point analysis method.
• The Calculated Time Delay is calculated to be the Most Likely Time Delay in the case of the Single Point analysis method and the weighted average of the time delay estimates in the case of the 3-Point analysis method.
• Risk Severity Rating is calculated to be the product of the probability weighting and the impact weighting.
• The Risk Assessment Level corresponding to the Risk Severity Rating is retrieved.

Window

Risk Analysis Navigator
Risk Consequences
Risk Consequence

Related Window Descriptions

Risk Analysis Navigator/Consequence List
Risk Consequences
Risk Consequence

Procedure

Use the following procedure to define consequences on a problem using the Risk Analysis Navigator/Consequence List tab.

Note: You can also use the Risk Consequences or Risk Consequence windows to perform this activity in which case the relevant parent records, Analysis ID and Problem ID, must be selected. Field entry rules are the same as those defined for the Risk Analysis Navigator window.

1. Navigate to and select the problem node for the risk analysis to add a consequence.
2. Click New (F5) to create a new record. A default value for Consequence ID will appear for this record, which can be modified if required, to change the display sequence.
3. In the Consequence Description field, enter a description of the effect that may occur. A value for this field is required.
4. In the Probability Percentage field, enter the expected probability of a consequence happening or else select the Probability Level ID from the List of Values.
5. For the Cost Impact estimate, enter either estimates cost values or choose a Cost Impact Level from the List of Values. A value for Total Base Cost must exist before any cost values or cost impact level can be set.
6. In the Most Likely Cost Estimate field, enter the cost impact value most likely expected as a result of the consequence occurring. Note: If the 3 - Point Analysis method is used, the Min Cost and Max Cost fields must also have values entered on them in order to calculate the weighted average.
7. Entry of potential time delay needs the Most Likely value for the selected time unit. As for cost entry, use of 3 - Point analysis method requires that Min and Max fields are also entered.
8. Click Save.